Activité, déficit, confiance… Le point en graphiques sur la crise actuelle et celle à venir

Magasins fermés, usines tournant au ralenti, lieux touristiques désertés… Pendant près de deux mois, la machine économique française s’est enrayée.

Mi-avril, au cœur de la crise liée à la pandémie de Covid-19, l’Insee estimait que l’activité économique en France était inférieure de 36 % à la normale. Une baisse d’activité encore plus marquée dans des secteurs comme la construction (− 88 %) ou dans certains services (− 90 % pour l’hôtellerie-restauration, − 64 % pour le transport-entreposage).

Un coup d’arrêt brutal qui a fait chuter le produit intérieur brut (PIB) du pays comme jamais depuis 1945. Le premier trimestre, qui ne comptait pourtant que deux semaines de confinement, a en effet vu le PIB français baisser de 5,8 % par rapport à son niveau du trimestre précédent.

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Même le recul brutal enregistré lors du deuxième trimestre 1968 (marqué par les grèves et les manifestations du mois de mai) n’avait pas été aussi fort. En 2008-2009, le recul de l’activité, très important également, s’était étalé sur près d’un an, se soldant par des reculs trimestriels mécaniquement moins violents.

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Pour faire face à cette crise d’une ampleur historique, le gouvernement a donc lancé un vaste plan d’aide, mêlant aides aux salariés (chômage partiel) et aides aux entreprises (reports de charges, fonds de solidarité, investissements en capital, etc.).

Au total, ce plan mobilise l’équivalent d’un peu plus de 4 % du PIB. Une manne à laquelle il faut ajouter les 300 milliards d’euros de prêts garantis par l’Etat aux entreprises et les aides en provenance de l’Europe et des régions.

Si massif soit-il, ce plan ne suffira pas à endiguer totalement les premiers effets de la crise. A titre d’exemple, tous les entrepreneurs n’atteindront pas le plafond de pertes requis pour bénéficier du fonds de solidarité, tandis que les demandes de prêts garantis par l’Etat peuvent être refusées (c’était, au 7 mai, le cas de 2,5 % des demandes). Par ailleurs, ces prêts devront être remboursés, ce qui pèsera sur la comptabilité des entreprises. C’est aussi le cas des charges dues au titre des mois de confinement, qui ne sont, le plus souvent, que reportées.

  • A moyen terme, de nombreux obstacles peuvent gêner la relance

L’économie française portera donc, pendant de longs mois, les stigmates de ces huit semaines de confinement, d’autant que de fortes incertitudes planent sur la reprise de l’activité. Si elles se matérialisent, ces menaces contribueront également à ralentir le redécollage de l’économie française.

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En premier lieu, si la situation sanitaire se dégrade de nouveau, un nouveau confinement, partiel ou non, n’est pas à exclure, avec des conséquences similaires à celles observées entre mars et mai.

Même si ce scénario catastrophe ne se produit pas, la productivité ne retrouvera pas immédiatement son niveau d’avant-crise, du fait des protocoles sanitaires mis en place dans les usines, bureaux et commerces. Des précautions qui risquent d’écrêter encore plus les comptes de résultats des entreprises, également mis à mal par la disparition programmée de certaines aides.

Par ailleurs, la crise actuelle, inédite par sa typologie et son ampleur, a lourdement pesé sur le moral des Français. Au mois d’avril, l’indice de confiance des ménages a chuté de 8 points (sa plus forte baisse mensuelle depuis la création de l’enquête) et est repassé sous sa moyenne de long terme.

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Certes, les ménages sont plus confiants qu’ils ne l’étaient lors de la mobilisation des « gilets jaunes » ou lors de la crise financière de 2008-2009. Mais, malgré l’épargne accumulée par les Français durant le confinement (entre 55 milliards et 60 milliards d’euros), ce moral en berne pourrait freiner certaines décisions d’achat et ralentir d’autant la reprise.

Lire aussi La France a perdu un demi-million d’emplois au premier trimestre

A cette sinistrose qui gagne doucement les foyers français, s’ajoute celle qui touche les entrepreneurs. L’indice du climat des affaires, qui reflète leur opinion sur leur activité actuelle et future, a ainsi plongé de plus de 30 points en avril, et atteint son plus bas niveau historique.

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Or, si l’horizon des dirigeants d’entreprises ne s’éclaircit pas dans les prochains mois, notamment si la consommation ne repart pas assez rapidement, ceux-ci pourraient décider de réduire la voilure en termes d’emplois ou d’investissements. Interrogés en avril, les industriels ont déjà estimé que leurs dépenses d’investissement baisseraient de 7 % cette année.

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La crise liée au Covid-19 étant mondiale, l’économie française pâtira également de la morosité du contexte international. Selon le Fonds monétaire international (FMI), le PIB mondial devrait se contracter de 3 % en 2020, et de 6,1 % dans les pays développés. De son côté, l’Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC) prévoit que les échanges mondiaux de marchandises chuteront d’au moins 13 % cette année, avant un éventuel rebond en 2021.

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  • A long terme, des finances publiques dégradées et des marges de manœuvre réduites

Si elles ont permis de juguler la crise à court terme, les mesures mises en place par le gouvernement vont fortement peser sur les comptes publics. Le déficit public va donc se creuser de manière inédite, d’autant que la baisse de l’activité va réduire les recettes fiscales perçues par l’Etat.

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La loi de finances rectificative du 25 avril, la seconde de l’année 2020, prévoit en effet que le déficit public atteindra 9,1 % du PIB en 2020, contre 2,2 % prévu initialement et 3 % en 2019. Même en 2009, quand il avait fallu contenir les effets de la crise financière et amorcer la relance, le déficit n’avait atteint « que » 7,2 %.

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Ce déficit, qui pourrait plonger davantage si la crise perdure ou se révèle plus dévastatrice qu’envisagé, viendra gonfler une dette publique déjà importante.

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Le ratio dette/PIB de la France, si scruté depuis la dernière crise, pourrait bondir à 115,2 %, contre 98,1 % fin 2019. Entre 2008 et 2009, ce ratio était passé de 68,8 % à 83 % et, du fait de la crise de la dette de la zone euro, avait continué à grimper jusqu’en 2017.

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Pour rétablir leurs finances et leurs marges de manœuvre, les pouvoirs publics seront tentés, comme ils l’ont été par le passé, d’augmenter les impôts ou de diminuer les dépenses publiques, ce qui, à plus long terme, pourrait aussi freiner le rétablissement complet de l’économie française.

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